Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 99% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 95% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 55% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 38% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, belgium vs. senegal - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props on Prediction Market UK
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