Canada vs. Morocco - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, Canada and Morocco will face in a FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match, with this market resolving solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. A YES share means you believe the match will end with one of the explicitly listed exact scores; a NO share means you expect any other outcome, including a postponed or cancelled game that never completes. The current crowd-implied probability of 10% for a specific exact score reflects the market’s view that such a precise result is relatively unlikely, given the teams’ historical tendencies and current form.

Historically, Morocco has dominated Canada, winning both of their recorded encounters: 2–1 in the 2022 World Cup and 4–0 in a 2016 friendly, with Morocco holding a 2–0 record across both matches [1][5]. Canada’s recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five games, scoring nine goals and conceding three [1]. The Opta supercomputer estimates Morocco a 52.7% chance of winning in regulation, while Canada has only 21.7% [2]. These figures suggest that exact-score outcomes involving Canada scoring multiple goals are less probable, framing why a specific exact score sits at just 10% in the market.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements on team line-ups, any late injuries, and weather conditions at the venue, as these can shift scoring probabilities significantly. Canada are underdogs, ranked 24 places below Morocco’s world number six, and the Opta model also estimates a 25.6% chance the match goes to extra time [2]. Recent coverage from Al Jazeera notes Canada’s underdog status but highlights their potential to break through, making squad news and tactical shifts key catalysts to watch before the settlement window closes on 4 July 2026 at 17:00:00Z [2]. No moralising is needed; the facts alone guide whether a YES or NO share aligns with your assessment of the likely score.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Canada vs. Morocco - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.