England vs. Argentina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, England and Argentina will meet in a FIFA World Cup semi-final, with this market settling on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation and stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A YES share means you believe the match will end with one of the listed exact scores; a NO share means you expect any other outcome. The crowd currently assigns an 11% probability to YES, implying the listed scores are seen as unlikely compared to the broader range of possibilities.

Historically, exact scores in high-stakes World Cup matches between top nations are rare, with 1–0, 2–1, and 1–1 being the most common outcomes in recent decades. In the five prior World Cup meetings between England and Argentina, England won three, Argentina one, and one ended in a draw, but none produced a repeated exact score across tournaments [2][1]. Given Argentina’s perfect record in World Cup semi-finals—winning all four they have played—and England’s tendency for tight, low-scoring knockout games, the 11% crowd-implied probability aligns with the difficulty of predicting a precise scoreline in such a contested fixture [8].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late injury updates for key attackers like Harry Kane and Lionel Messi, as their availability directly influences scoring probability. The match is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET at a neutral venue in the United States, with no weather dependencies expected, but any postponement would keep the market open until completion [3]. Recent coverage confirms this is the sixth World Cup meeting between the two, heightening tactical caution and potentially suppressing goal totals [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track England vs. Argentina - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.