France vs. Spain

Platform comparison

Market context

On Tuesday, 14 July 2026, France and Spain will meet in the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal at Dallas Stadium, with the match kicking off at 14:00 local time. In this prediction market, a YES share pays out if France wins the game, while a NO share pays out if Spain wins or the match ends in a draw. The crowd currently assigns a 42% probability to France winning, meaning traders are pricing in a slight edge for Spain or a draw.

Historically, Spain leads the all‑time head‑to‑head record with 18 wins to France’s 13 across 38 matches, though World Cup semifinals often defy long‑term trends [3][11]. In this tournament, France has been flawless, winning all six matches without conceding a draw or loss, while Spain has not scored a single goal in any of their World Cup games yet, having beaten Belgium 2–1 in the quarter‑final thanks to an 88th‑minute winner from Mikel Merino [1][5]. This contrast between France’s perfect run and Spain’s defensive record—Spain is the only team in the 2026 World Cup to have not conceded a goal so far—frames how to interpret the 42% YES probability [1].

Traders should watch the final squad announcements and any late injury updates before kickoff, as both teams have relied on key attackers in recent rounds. France’s Kylian Mbappé has already scored his 20th career World Cup goal, while Spain’s reliance on Merino’s late finishing will be critical if they face a high‑pressing France [7]. The game will be broadcast on FOX in the US and streamed on FOX One and FOX Sports, with coverage starting one hour before kickoff [2]. No major roster changes have been reported in the past 24 hours, but any late withdrawal could shift the implied probability significantly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.