France vs. Spain - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, France and Spain will meet in a FIFA World Cup semi-final at 3:00 PM ET, with the market settling on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the listed exact score occurs, while a NO share wins if any other result happens; the current 8% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests traders view this specific outcome as unlikely compared to the broader range of possible scores.

Historically, these nations have played 38 matches, with Spain winning 18, France 13, and 7 draws, meaning tight, low-scoring results are common in their rivalry [1][4]. In recent World Cup knockout games, both sides have often produced narrow margins: France’s semi-final win over Morocco ended 2–0, while Spain’s path has featured disciplined defensive displays, making exact scores like 1–0 or 1–1 more plausible than high-scoring outcomes [5]. The 8% probability aligns with how rare any single exact score is in football, even when historical trends favour cautious play.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late injury updates for key attackers like Kylian Mbappé, who recently scored his 20th World Cup goal, and Spain’s defensive line, before the match [5]. Match odds currently show France as slight favourites with +135 money-line odds, while the total goals market leans toward under 2.5, suggesting a low-scoring contest is expected [6]. Any shift in these odds or official team news released in the next 24 hours could significantly alter the implied probability for specific exact scores.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.