Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany meet Côte d’Ivoire in a World Cup group-stage match, and this exact-score market only settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not extra time or penalties. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the named scoreline happens and a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so the listed price is the crowd’s estimate of that precise outcome rather than who simply wins the match.

A 4% implied probability is already much lower than the chance of a routine win or draw, because exact scores split many possible results across a wide range of outcomes. Pre-match betting markets for the same fixture have priced Germany as the clear favourite, with ESPN showing Germany at -175 on the moneyline and 2.5 goals shaded to the over at -190, while FOX Sports also lists Germany shorter than Côte d’Ivoire and a 2.5-goal total around the middle of the market.[2][3] Germany have also been associated with strong starts in recent matches, which is one reason a narrow early lead is often discussed in comparable previews, but that does not by itself point to a specific final score.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are simple: team news, starting line-ups, any late injury or suspension updates, and whether the match remains on the published kick-off schedule. FIFA’s match centre is the cleanest reference for fixture status, while live-score providers will show whether the game is under way, delayed, or completed.[5][1] Because the contract stays open if the match is postponed and only resolves once it is actually played, the main risk is not just the scoreline itself but any change to timing, conditions, or eligibility that affects how the fixture is completed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.