Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. A halftime result market asks whether Scotland (the away side) will be leading, whether the match will be level, or whether Haiti (the home side) will be ahead when the referee blows the whistle at 45 minutes plus any added time. In prediction-market terminology, a YES share on this market means you're betting that Scotland finishes the first half ahead; a NO share means you're betting on either a draw or a Haiti lead. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible odds to Scotland being ahead at halftime.

Scotland's recent World Cup qualifying record and tournament pedigree provide context for reading this probability. Scotland failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup and has not reached a World Cup knockout stage since 1998. Haiti, conversely, qualified for the 2026 tournament after a 36-year absence from the World Cup stage, having last competed in 1990. Head-to-head records between these nations are sparse; they have not faced each other in competitive play. Scotland's UEFA ranking (currently around 40th globally) substantially exceeds Haiti's CONCACAF standing, yet the 0% halftime lead probability may reflect either the away-side disadvantage in opening-half play or uncertainty around team selection and fitness closer to the tournament.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, particularly regarding Scotland's attacking personnel and Haiti's defensive stability. Venue conditions at the designated stadium, weather forecasts for 13 June, and any late tactical shifts disclosed by either manager could shift expectations for early-game tempo and scoring likelihood. Recent friendly results and training-camp reports from official sources will offer signals about team readiness and attacking intent during the critical first 45 minutes.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.