Jordan vs. Algeria

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jordan meet Algeria in a FIFA World Cup group match at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with kick-off listed for 23 June at 03:00 UTC, which aligns with the market’s settlement window ending a few seconds later.[4][1][2] In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the specified event happens; a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so a 24% crowd-implied probability means traders are leaning against Jordan winning this market condition, but not ruling it out.[2]

The best way to read that price is as a snapshot of relative strength rather than a guarantee. Public match odds at ESPN show Algeria as the favourite, with Jordan priced at +500 on the moneyline and Algeria at -175, while the draw is +320.[2] That kind of pricing is consistent with a market that gives Jordan only an outside chance, even though the head-to-head record has been fairly even in past meetings, which can matter when traders are weighing whether the crowd has over- or under-estimated one side.[3][6]

The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, late injury news, and any change to the match schedule or venue, because those can move probabilities quickly in a one-off fixture.[4][1] FIFA’s match centre already lists the game as part of Group J, while Sky Sports and ESPN both show the same contest on the calendar, reducing uncertainty over whether this is the correct event but leaving room for trading around team news before kick-off.[4][1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Jordan vs. Algeria on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.