Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 76% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 64% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 34% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 27% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to mexico vs. england - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Mexico vs. England - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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