Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Norway and England will meet in a FIFA World Cup match where the market resolves to an exact score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and shoot-outs. A YES share means you believe the final score will match one of the listed outcomes; a NO share means you expect any other result. Currently, the crowd implies a 7% chance for YES, suggesting the market views this specific scoreline as unlikely.

Historically, England has dominated Norway, winning two of four World Cup qualifier encounters while losing just once, with a goal difference of 28 to 7 across all matches [1]. In their last World Cup qualifier meeting in 1980, England won 4–0, and in a 1966 friendly, they triumphed 6–1 [3]. Such lopsided results frame why a 7% probability for a precise score is plausible, as exact scores in high-difference games are rare.

Traders should monitor team news, including squad announcements and injury updates, as England’s recent form shows mixed results against Mexico, Colombia, and Panama [2]. With Erling Haaland now level with Messi and Mbappé on Golden Boot goals, his performance could shift scoring dynamics [5]. Watch for official FIFA squad lists released before the match, as these directly impact the likelihood of any exact score outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.