Norway vs. France - Player Props

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Group I clash between Norway and France at Gillette Stadium on 26 June, a fixture that decides the group winner after both sides secured two wins. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the specific player prop condition is met, while a NO share wins if it fails; here, the crowd implies a 49% chance for the selected outcome, reflecting a near-even contest between Erling Haaland’s direct attacking threat and Kylian Mbappé’s star power.

Historically, matches between two-time champions like France (1998, 2018) and nations returning after long absences like Norway (first since 1998) often produce cagey, low-scoring affairs when group positioning is already settled, yet Norway’s xG per shot of 0.19 currently leads all nations, suggesting their efficiency could defy typical defensive trends. Comparable World Cup group deciders in 2022 saw similar volatility when top teams rested key players, yet Haaland has already scored in the tournament, while Mbappé’s price has dropped to plus 105, indicating strong market confidence in his involvement.

Traders should monitor squad announcements for rotations, as both teams have qualified and may rest stars to avoid injury, though Haaland and Mbappé are likely to start given their Golden Boot ambitions. Recent analysis from Yahoo Sports highlights Norway’s seven goals from 25 attempts as a key catalyst, while ESPN odds list France at -185, suggesting a slight edge for the French side. The settlement window ends 19:00 UTC on 26 June, so any late squad changes or weather delays at Foxborough, Massachusetts, will directly impact prop outcomes.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.