Norway vs. Senegal

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Norway play Senegal in a FIFA World Cup group match at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on 22 June 2026, and the market resolves on the final whistle before 23 June UTC. A **YES** share pays out if Norway win; a **NO** share pays out if Senegal win or the match is drawn. The crowd-implied price of **31% YES** therefore suggests traders think Norway are an underdog, but not without a live chance. [1][3][5]

For context, prediction markets on football often sit between pure rank-and-name recognition and the match odds once line-ups, form and tournament pressure are priced in. ESPN’s listed odds currently make Norway a modest underdog at **+210** to win, with Senegal priced around **-150** to avoid defeat on the draw-no-bet style market and the draw around **+265**; that lines up with a market that is leaning against a Norwegian win, while still leaving room for an upset. FIFA also lists this as a first-stage group game, which matters because group incentives can change how aggressively each side plays depending on earlier results. [1][3]

Traders should watch confirmed starting line-ups, late injury news, and any shift in group standings before kick-off. FIFA’s match centre lists the game for **00:00 UTC on 23 June**, while MetLife Stadium shows an **8:00 PM** local start on 22 June, so timing is straightforward but late team-news can still move prices quickly. Any information on rest, rotation, or whether either side has already secured qualification in Group I could affect the number of goals and the win probability more than the headline fixture itself. [3][5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. Senegal on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.