Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature a group-stage match between Sweden and Tunisia on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market asks traders to predict the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time—not the outcome of extra time or penalties. A YES share pays out if the match ends at one of the explicitly listed scorelines; a NO share pays out if the final score is anything else, settling to "Any Other Score." The 0% crowd probability reflects that no single scoreline has accumulated meaningful trading volume, which is typical for exact-score markets where outcomes fragment across dozens of possible results.

Sweden and Tunisia have met twice in competitive fixtures, drawing 1–1 in a 2018 World Cup group match and 1–0 to Sweden in a 2012 friendly. Group-stage matches between sides of differing strength often produce narrow margins; the median goal tally in World Cup group games since 2010 is 2–3 total goals. Tunisia's recent form has been inconsistent—they finished bottom of their 2022 World Cup group—whilst Sweden qualified for Qatar but exited in the group stage. Both teams' squad depth and tactical setup will become clearer as the tournament approaches, particularly following their warm-up fixtures in May 2026.

Traders should monitor team news from late May onwards, including injury updates and final squad announcements. Betting markets and official FIFA communications will signal any fixture changes. The exact-score format rewards precision; even favoured outcomes like 1–0 or 2–1 typically carry odds reflecting their historical frequency rather than certainty. Settlement occurs at 02:00 UTC on 15 June, allowing time for official confirmation of the final result.

Methodology

We track Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.