Tunisia vs. Netherlands

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia play the Netherlands in a FIFA World Cup group match on 25 June, and a **YES** share on this market would pay out if that match outcome meets the contract’s settlement rules by 23:00 UTC. The crowd price of **5% YES** implies a low but non-zero chance that the specified condition will be met, so traders are effectively asking whether Tunisia can produce an upset or whether the game reaches the settlement outcome in a way the market defines.

For context, Tunisia are typically priced as the underdog against a European side of the Netherlands’ stature, which is consistent with the live odds snapshot showing the Dutch side as a strong favourite and Tunisia on the long end of the market[1]. Tunisia’s World Cup record is more about occasional tight results than deep runs, while the Netherlands arrive with a historically stronger tournament profile and a broader talent base[7]. In prediction markets, a low single-digit probability is often a shorthand for “possible, but requiring a clear edge case or upset”, rather than a routine match expectation.

The main catalysts to watch are team news, injuries, squad rotation, and the broader group position before kick-off, because late changes can materially affect both match odds and market sentiment. FIFA’s match centre confirms the fixture timing and that it is a Group F match, so any prior results in the group could also shape how aggressively either side approaches it[3]. ESPN’s listing shows the same fixture and indicates the market around it is already heavily skewed towards the Netherlands, with Tunisia priced as a sizeable outsider[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.