Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye and Paraguay meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match, and this market settles on the exact score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, with extra time and penalties excluded. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final score matches the listed outcome you are backing, while **NO** pays if it does not; if the score lands outside the listed options, the market uses **Any Other Score** under its rules.

An 8% crowd-implied probability suggests a specific scoreline is viewed as possible but not the most likely result. That is broadly consistent with football score markets, where low-scoring draws and one-goal wins often attract more support than exact high-margin outcomes. Current match pricing from bookmakers points to a competitive game rather than a one-sided contest, with Türkiye and Paraguay both priced in the same general range and the draw also material in the market. ESPN and Fox Sports listings also show both sides entering the match on 0 points, which means the group-stage context still matters for how cautiously or aggressively each team approaches the result.[1][2]

The main catalysts are pre-match team news, starting line-ups, and any late fitness or suspension updates, because exact-score markets are highly sensitive to whether either side fields a more attacking or conservative XI. The official FIFA match centre lists the fixture for Group stage play at 03:00 UTC on 20 June, and schedule changes would matter because this market remains open if the match is postponed until completion.[4] A trader should also watch for any official confirmation of the venue and kick-off status from FIFA and major broadcasters, since exact-score probabilities can shift quickly once line-ups and tactical intent become clearer.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.