Türkiye vs. Paraguay - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye meet Paraguay in the FIFA World Cup group stage at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with kick-off set for 9:00pm local time on 19 June and the market settling when the relevant window closes shortly after the match is under way. In this kind of prediction market, a **YES** share pays out if there is *more* market activity created for this fixture before settlement; a **NO** share wins if there is not. The current crowd-implied probability of 24% suggests traders think an extra market is possible, but not the most likely outcome.

That reading fits a World Cup group-stage context, where a single match can still generate additional prices for things such as match result, goals, cards, player specials or qualification scenarios, but only if the exchange or platform chooses to list them. Comparable World Cup fixtures often see more market variety when there is close pre-match uncertainty, a notable tournament narrative, or a late team news development that broadens interest beyond the main result line. ESPN’s current fixture listing places Türkiye vs Paraguay in Group D at 9 p.m. local time, underlining that the market is tied to a live, scheduled event rather than a general football proposition.[1][4]

Traders should watch for official matchday announcements, confirmed line-ups, injury updates and any changes to the published schedule, because those are the main triggers for new derivatives to appear. The existing odds page already shows a live market for the game itself, which is often a sign that related markets can follow if attention rises.[2] FIFA’s match-centre entry and ticket listings also confirm the venue and timing, which helps anchor when any new market would need to be launched before the 20 June 03:00 UTC settlement point.[4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. Paraguay - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.