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LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 95% Game 1 Winner 89% Game 2 Winner 78% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? 76% Volume: $838K Liquidity: $324K Closes: 16 Jul 2026
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LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
95% 5% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
95% 5% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner95%
Game 1 Winner89%
Game 2 Winner78%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?76%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs MIBR.LOS (+1.5)69%
First Blood in Game 2?58%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
O/U 2.5 Games50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
First Blood in Game 1?1%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: jd gaming vs mibr.los (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between JD Gaming and MIBR.LOS in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 16 at 9:50AM ET. This market …

Methodology

We track LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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