Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Cruz Azul 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlético San Luis (-1.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis (-2.5) | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atlético San Luis 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CF Cruz Azul 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlético San Luis and CF Cruz Azul are scheduled to play a Liga MX fixture on 17 July at 21:00 ET. This market settles on whether additional betting or trading opportunities will emerge around that match. When you buy a YES share, you're wagering that more markets will be offered; a NO share bets they won't. The settlement window closes on 18 July at 01:00 UTC, giving roughly four hours after kick-off for new markets to appear before the question resolves.
Liga MX typically generates secondary markets around major fixtures, particularly when teams carry playoff implications or significant injury news. Cruz Azul finished the 2023–24 season in the top four and remains a draw for liquidity; San Luis, by contrast, has historically attracted lighter trading volumes. The 0% implied probability reflects either low expected demand for additional markets or uncertainty about whether the platform will list them—a distinction worth noting, since platform supply decisions differ from match-outcome probabilities.
Traders should monitor team news in the week preceding 17 July, especially injury confirmations or managerial statements that might trigger hedging interest. Liga MX's mid-season scheduling often produces fixture congestion; if either side faces a fixture clash or fatigue concerns, broadcasters and betting operators sometimes respond with expanded market offerings. Mexican sports media outlets including ESPN Deportes and TUDN typically publish lineups 24 hours before kick-off, providing a final catalyst window for market expansion decisions.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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