Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Atlanta Braves will face the New York Mets in a regular-season Major League Baseball matchup at 4:10 PM Eastern Time. In prediction markets, traders purchase YES or NO shares depending on their conviction about the outcome. A YES share pays out if the Braves win; a NO share pays out if the Mets win. The current crowd-implied probability showing 100% YES suggests traders have assigned near-certain odds to an Atlanta victory, though the settlement window extends to 20 June to account for potential postponements.

Historical matchups between these National League East rivals provide context for evaluating such extreme probabilities. Over their last ten meetings, the Braves have won roughly 60% of games, a margin substantial enough to justify favouring Atlanta but insufficient to justify absolute certainty. Mets teams have mounted comebacks and upset victories in similar circumstances; the 2015 Mets reached the World Series despite mid-season struggles. A 100% probability typically reflects either missing information, a technical market error, or an extraordinarily lopsided circumstance—such as one team's entire roster being unavailable.

Traders should monitor roster announcements, weather forecasts for the scheduled venue, and any late injury reports affecting starting pitchers in the days before 13 June. Pitching matchups often determine single-game outcomes in baseball; if Atlanta's starter is significantly more experienced or effective than New York's, that would reinforce the current probability. Conversely, any unexpected absence from the Braves' lineup could shift market expectations materially. The settlement terms specify that cancellations without make-up games resolve 50-50, creating a floor beneath any single team's probability.

Methodology

This page reviews Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.