Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June, the Detroit Tigers will face the Cleveland Guardians in an MLB regular-season matchup at 4:10 PM Eastern Time. A YES share represents a Tigers victory; a NO share represents a Guardians win. The current crowd-implied probability of 56% for a Tigers win reflects moderate confidence in Detroit, though the Guardians remain competitive at 44%. Should the game be postponed, this market remains open until completion. In the unlikely event of cancellation with no rescheduled make-up game, or if the match ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50 to all holders.

The Tigers and Guardians have maintained relatively balanced head-to-head records in recent seasons, with neither club establishing decisive dominance. Detroit's 2024 campaign showed modest improvement after years of rebuilding, whilst Cleveland has remained a consistent playoff contender in the American League Central. Historical matchups between these divisional rivals typically reflect their broader competitive standing rather than extreme variance, suggesting the 56-44 split aligns with reasonable expectation rather than an outlier assessment.

Traders should monitor roster availability in the days before 13 June, particularly starting pitcher assignments and any late injury announcements. Weather conditions at the scheduled venue and any last-minute scheduling adjustments could shift market sentiment. Recent performance trends—win-loss streaks, bullpen effectiveness, and offensive output—often move prediction markets in the final 48 hours before first pitch. Official MLB injury reports and team announcements remain the primary sources for material changes to expected lineups.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.