Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June, the Detroit Tigers will travel to Houston to face the Astros in an MLB regular-season matchup. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet on the Tigers winning; a NO share represents a bet on the Astros winning. The current crowd-implied probability of 39% for a Tigers victory reflects the market's collective assessment that Houston enters as the favoured side. This market will settle based on the official final result recorded by MLB, with provisions for postponement (market remains open) or cancellation without a make-up game (50-50 split).

The Tigers have struggled considerably in recent seasons, whilst Houston has maintained competitive rosters and playoff appearances. Last year's regular-season head-to-head records and recent form typically anchor how traders price matchups between these franchises. The Astros' established pitching depth and offensive consistency have historically made them reliable favourites in comparable situations, though Detroit occasionally produces upset performances that shift market sentiment.

Key variables for traders to monitor include starting pitcher assignments, which MLB typically confirms 24–48 hours before game time, and any roster changes due to injury. Recent reports on Detroit's injury status and Houston's bullpen availability could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at Minute Maid Park and any last-minute lineup adjustments announced on game day will also influence late trading activity. The settlement window closes on 24 June, allowing time for any postponement to be resolved before final determination.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.