Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June at 2:10 PM Eastern Time, the Detroit Tigers will face the Houston Astros in an MLB regular-season matchup. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet on the Tigers winning; a NO share bets on the Astros. The current crowd-implied probability of 47% YES suggests traders view this as a near-even contest, with a slight lean toward Houston. The settlement window remains open until 24 June, allowing time for postponements or rescheduling should weather or other factors intervene.

The Tigers and Astros occupy different trajectories in the 2026 season. Houston has established itself as a consistent playoff contender over recent years, whilst Detroit has undergone a longer rebuild cycle. Historical matchups between these clubs show the Astros have held a slight edge in head-to-head records, though regular-season outcomes depend heavily on current roster form and pitching matchups. The 47% probability reflects uncertainty rather than a clear consensus, suggesting traders lack strong conviction about either team's advantage on this particular date.

Key variables affecting this market include starting pitcher assignments, which typically emerge 48 to 72 hours before game time, and any roster changes due to injury or roster moves. Weather conditions in Houston could influence game dynamics, particularly wind direction affecting fly ball distances. Recent team performance streaks, bullpen availability following preceding games, and travel fatigue from the preceding series schedule all factor into how traders may adjust their positions as the match date approaches. Official MLB injury reports and team announcements will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current probability.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.