Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

On Monday, 29 June 2026, the Detroit Tigers face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the opener of a three-game series, with the game set to begin at 7:05 PM ET. In this prediction market, a YES share represents a bet that the Tigers will win the match, while a NO share bets against that outcome; the current crowd-implied probability of 45% suggests the market views the Tigers as slightly less likely to win than the Yankees, who are favoured by traditional betting lines showing odds of -130 to -150 for the Yankees[1][2].

Historically, in MLB matchups where the home team holds a superior season record and a stronger pitching rotation, the visiting team’s win probability typically falls between 40% and 48%, mirroring today’s 45% figure; the Yankees (48-35) are significantly ahead of the Tigers (35-49) in the standings, and their starting pitcher Weathers (3-5, 3.95 ERA) faces Tigers’ Mize (2-5, 2.95 ERA), a dynamic that often tilts outcomes toward the home side in early series games[3][5].

Traders should monitor the official starting lineups announced one hour before the game, as any late pitcher change could shift probabilities, and watch for weather updates at Yankee Stadium, which could affect run totals set at 8.0[1]. Recent expert picks from CBS Sports show a majority favouring the Yankees, with Matt Severance selecting them at +1444.5, reinforcing the market’s lean[5]. The settlement window ends on 6 July 2026, ensuring the market remains open if the game is postponed but not if it is cancelled entirely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.