Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is an upcoming Major League Baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers, scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on 26 June at Comerica Park in Detroit. In this prediction market, a YES share means you are betting that the Houston Astros will win the game, while a NO share means you are betting they will not win. The current crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome is 0%, suggesting the market overwhelmingly expects the Astros to lose, despite them being the underdog on the moneyline at -104 in some books and favoured by 1.5 runs on the spread[1][3].

Historically, similar 0% probabilities in MLB win markets have appeared when a team is significantly out of form or facing a superior opponent, yet this case is unusual because the Astros are actually the underdog on the moneyline while the Tigers are favoured at -118[3]. Recent data shows the Tigers won their last meeting against the Astros on 25 June with a 2–1 scoreline, and numberFire predicts a 51.9% win probability for Detroit in this matchup[1][7]. This divergence between the 0% market probability and the betting odds suggests either a liquidity gap or a mispricing that traders should scrutinise before settlement.

Traders should watch for any official announcements regarding player injuries, starting pitcher confirmations, or weather delays that could alter the game’s outcome, as these are the primary catalysts for probability shifts. The over/under is set at 9 runs, with the under favoured at -122, indicating expectations of a low-scoring contest[1]. With the settlement window ending on 3 July 2026, any postponement will keep the market open until the game is completed, so monitoring MLB.TV updates and ESPN game logs is essential for accurate positioning[2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.