Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the Miami Marlins will travel to Philadelphia to face the Phillies in an MLB regular-season matchup. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the Marlins win; a NO share bets on a Phillies victory. The current crowd-implied probability of 12% for a Marlins win reflects the market's assessment that Philadelphia enters as a clear favourite. This market settles based on official MLB final statistics, with a settlement window extending to 23 June to accommodate any postponements.

The 12% probability assigned to Miami reflects the Phillies' structural advantages heading into June 2026. Philadelphia has consistently ranked amongst baseball's stronger franchises over recent seasons, whilst the Marlins have cycled through rebuilding phases. Historical matchups between these teams show Philadelphia winning roughly 55–60% of regular-season contests over the past decade, though individual games remain volatile. A 12% implied win probability for Miami suggests traders view the Marlins as significant underdogs, consistent with their typical standing relative to the Phillies' payroll and roster depth.

Traders monitoring this market should track roster updates in the days before 16 June, particularly injury reports affecting starting pitchers or key position players. Weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park—temperature, wind direction, and precipitation risk—can shift offensive output meaningfully. Recent form matters: if either team enters June on a winning or losing streak, that momentum may shift the probability. The settlement window's seven-day extension accounts for potential rain postponements common in the Northeast during mid-June, so traders should confirm the game's completion status before final settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.