New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the New York Mets will face the Cincinnati Reds in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture at 12:40 PM Eastern Time. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the Mets will win; a NO share bets on a Reds victory. The 98% crowd-implied probability—meaning the market collectively prices a Mets win at roughly 98 cents per share—reflects overwhelming confidence in New York's chances. This settlement window remains open until 24 June 2026, allowing for postponements or rescheduling should weather or other factors delay play.

Historical context suggests such extreme probabilities in baseball markets typically emerge when one team holds a decisive advantage in roster strength, recent form, or head-to-head record. The Mets have generally maintained a stronger win percentage than Cincinnati in recent seasons, though baseball's inherent variability means single-game outcomes remain less predictable than markets sometimes imply. Comparable fixtures between mismatched opponents have occasionally resolved against the heavily favoured side, though such upsets occur in roughly 2–5% of games where implied probability exceeds 95%.

Traders monitoring this market should track roster updates, injury reports, and starting pitcher announcements in the days before 17 June. Pitching matchups substantially influence game outcomes; a Reds ace facing a depleted Mets rotation could narrow the probability gap. Weather forecasts for the scheduled venue and any late-breaking trades or roster moves warrant attention. The settlement mechanism specifies that postponed games reopen the market until completion, whilst cancellations without make-up fixtures would resolve 50-50, eliminating the current probability advantage.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.