New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The game in Philadelphia decides whether a **YES** share pays out if the Mets win, while a **NO** share pays out if the Phillies win; if the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is played, and a cancelled game or tie resolves 50-50. With the crowd pricing the Mets at **44%**, the market is implying they are the underdog, but not a longshot, in a matchup where small changes in starting pitchers, line-ups or late scratches can matter a lot.

Recent results point towards the Phillies carrying the stronger short-term profile. They beat the Mets 15-3 on Saturday, with Kyle Schwarber homering three times and Bryce Harper hitting for the cycle, and ESPN lists Philadelphia ahead in the live game context for this contest as well.[2][1] MLB’s preview also highlighted Zack Wheeler’s recent success against New York, noting a 1.44 ERA in four starts versus the Mets since the start of 2024, which helps explain why a home win has been the clearer market favourite.[6] In that setting, a 44% Mets price looks like a modestly competitive underdog position rather than a neutral coin flip.[1][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any line-up changes and whether the game starts on time at Citizens Bank Park.[1][6] Because this market remains open if the game is postponed, the biggest procedural risk is schedule disruption rather than a new price move after a cancellation or tie, which would trigger the 50-50 fallback instead of a straightforward winner settlement. A reader new to prediction markets should treat each share as a claim on one outcome: if the Mets win, YES pays; if the Phillies win, NO pays.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.