Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the Seattle Mariners will travel to Detroit to face the Tigers in a regular-season MLB matchup. In prediction markets, traders buy YES shares if they believe the Mariners will win, or NO shares if they expect a Tigers victory. Each share pays £1 if the outcome occurs; the current 0% probability on YES reflects strong market conviction that Detroit will prevail. The settlement window extends to 14 June to accommodate any postponements, with cancellations or ties resolving the market 50-50.

The Tigers have established themselves as a competitive AL Central side in recent seasons, whilst the Mariners have struggled with consistency despite periodic talent infusions. Historical matchups between these franchises show Detroit holding a slight edge in head-to-head records over the past five years. Early-season form matters considerably here: teams entering June with winning records typically maintain momentum through the summer months, and Detroit's standing relative to Seattle's will heavily influence how traders reassess the probability as game day approaches.

Pitching assignments represent the primary catalyst for market movement. The scheduled starters will be announced 24–48 hours before first pitch; a Mariners ace facing a Tigers mid-rotation arm could shift sentiment materially. Weather conditions at Comerica Park—particularly wind direction affecting fly-ball distances—and any late roster moves due to injury will also warrant attention. Traders should monitor both teams' recent performance trends and any public statements from management regarding lineup adjustments in the days leading up to the fixture.

Methodology

We track Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.