IF Brommapojkarna vs. IK Sirius

Platform comparison

Market context

On Sunday, 12 July 2026, IF Brommapojkarna face IK Sirius at Grimsta IP in a Swedish Allsvenskan match kicking off at 14:30 UTC. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the stated outcome occurs, while a NO share pays if it does not; here, the market asks whether Brommapojkarna will win, with the crowd currently implying only a 1% chance of that happening.

Historical head-to-head data suggests Sirius holds a clear edge, having won 10 of the last 21 meetings against Brommapojkarna, who have secured just 7 victories, with 4 draws in between [1]. Another source notes Sirius won 12 direct matches compared to Brommapojkarna’s 5, with 4 draws, and an average of 3.38 goals per match in these fixtures [7]. Betting odds further reinforce this, with Sirius priced as favourites at -179, implying roughly a 64% win probability, while Brommapojkarna’s +390 odds reflect their status as underdogs [5].

Traders should monitor the official lineups released before kick-off, as injuries or tactical shifts could alter the match dynamics. Kick-off is confirmed at 14:30 UTC, and live coverage will be available on ESPN and other platforms, offering real-time stats that may influence sentiment if the market remains open pre-match [2][3]. No major pre-match announcements have been reported yet, but any late changes to squad availability could shift the implied probability away from the current 1% baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track IF Brommapojkarna vs. IK Sirius across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.