IF Brommapojkarna vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is an Allsvenskan football match between IF Brommapojkarna and IK Sirius at Studenternas IP in Uppsala, scheduled for 10:30 AM ET on 12 July. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s specific condition is met, while a NO share pays out if it is not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the condition will fail.

Historical head-to-head data shows IK Sirius has won 12 of the 23 meetings since 2007, compared to Brommapojkarna’s 7 wins, with an average of 3.38 goals per match in direct fixtures [2][3]. Sirius also hold 1st place in the Allsvenskan while Brommapojkarna sit 9th, and experts attribute Sirius a 43.4% win probability versus Brommapojkarna’s 29.4% [1][6]. This long-term dominance and current league positioning help explain why the market prices the YES outcome at zero.

Traders should monitor pre-match lineups and any late injury announcements, as these can shift goal-scoring or result-based probabilities in “more markets” bets. Bookmakers currently favour Sirius for a win, with best odds of 1.67 at Betway, and both teams to score is predicted as “Yes” with a 2-1 scoreline forecast [1][4][10]. The match begins at 14:30 UTC, and all outcomes settle once the final whistle is confirmed before the 14:30 UTC settlement deadline on 12 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track IF Brommapojkarna vs. IK Sirius - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.