Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Derry City FC face PFK CSKA Sofia in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League first qualifying round tie, needing to overturn a one-goal deficit after losing the first match 3–2 in Sofia. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s specific condition is met, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the 0% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests traders believe the defined outcome is virtually impossible.

Historically, teams trailing by a single goal after the first leg in Europa League qualifiers often struggle to advance, with only a minority reversing the deficit in the second leg. In this two-legged format, the aggregate score determines the winner, and CSKA Sofia’s 3–2 lead means Derry must win by at least two clear goals to progress, a difficult task against a side that scored three away goals in the first encounter.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements for lineup changes, injuries, or tactical shifts, as well as any weather conditions at the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, which could affect play. Recent reports confirm CSKA Sofia’s strong form, with Bruno Jordao and Pittas key contributors in the first leg, while Derry City’s ability to score away will be critical [2][9]. The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 16 July 2026, immediately after the match ends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.