UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bruno Silva, a Brazilian flyweight, faces Édgar Cháirez in a preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. A YES share represents a bet that Silva wins by decision, submission, or knockout; a NO share represents a bet on Cháirez. The current 0% probability assigned to YES suggests the market has received no trading activity or reflects an extreme consensus that Cháirez is the favoured outcome. In prediction markets, such extreme readings often signal either genuine confidence or thin liquidity—the distinction matters for traders assessing whether the price reflects genuine edge or simply absence of counterparty interest.

Preliminary UFC bouts rarely generate the historical record depth of main-card fights, making comparative analysis difficult. Silva's record and recent form remain the primary anchors for evaluating his chances; Cháirez's trajectory and any recent injuries or weight-cut complications would similarly inform the matchup's technical balance. Flyweight contests have produced unexpected results at rates consistent with lighter divisions generally, where marginal physical differences and technical precision shifts can swing outcomes more dramatically than in heavier classes.

The settlement window closes on 7 June 2026, shortly after the event. Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health, weight-cut status, and any last-minute bout cancellations or rescheduling. The market resolves to 50-50 if the bout is ruled a draw, no contest, or postponed beyond 20 June. No major news sources typically cover preliminary flyweight matchups until fight week, so information asymmetry may persist until closer to the event date.

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.