Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs XLG Gaming (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs XLG Gaming (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-11.5) vs XLG Gaming (+11.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GM (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-12.5) vs XLG Gaming (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: gentle mates vs xlg gaming (bo3) - esports world cup group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and XLG Gaming in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 3 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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