Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 59% |
| Map 1 Winner | 56% |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% |
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 44% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5) | 43% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) | 32% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 62% YES probability for Valorant: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega. This market refers to the Valorant match between Sentinels and Cloud9 in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 16 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Sentinels" if…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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