Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On Saturday, 27 June 2026, the Phoenix Mercury face the Toronto Tempo in a WNBA match at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, with the game set to begin at 2:00 PM ET. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the Phoenix Mercury win, while a NO share pays out if they lose; the current market implies a 46% chance of a Mercury victory, meaning traders are slightly favouring the Tempo. This specific market resolves to the winning team’s name, remains open if postponed, and settles 50-50 only if the game is cancelled without a make-up.

Historically, similar WNBA games featuring a team with a 6–13 record, like the Mercury, have often seen odds hover near 45–50% when playing away, reflecting the volatility of mid-season matchups where recent form outweighs season-long standings. For instance, when the Mercury won 111–109 in their previous game, their odds shifted briefly above 50%, showing how single-game results can rapidly alter crowd-implied probabilities[5]. Such patterns suggest that the current 46% figure is a rational baseline, tempered by the Mercury’s recent resilience despite their lower overall record.

Traders should monitor pre-game announcements regarding player availability, particularly Thomas’s one-game suspension, which leaves the Mercury without their No. 1 scorer[5]. Additionally, watch for any late injury updates or weather-related delays, as these can swing probabilities significantly. Recent box scores indicate a combined total of 177.5 points, suggesting a high-scoring contest that could favour the Tempo’s offensive depth[1]. With the settlement window ending at 18:00 UTC on 27 June, all relevant news must be assessed before the game begins to avoid mispricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.