PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On Friday, 26 June 2026, the Portland Fire faced the Chicago Sky in a WNBA match at Wintrust Arena, with the Sky securing a decisive 124–94 victory. This real-world result means the prediction market titled "PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky" will resolve to "Chicago Sky", rendering any YES share on Portland Fire worthless. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the specified outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the 0% crowd-implied probability for Portland Fire correctly anticipated the Sky’s dominance.

Historically, when one team holds a significant advantage in form and away records, markets often assign near-zero odds to the weaker side winning. The Portland Fire, with an 8–10 record and a four-game road slide, faced a Chicago Sky team that, despite a 5–12 record, outperformed expectations in this fixture by scoring 36 points in the final quarter alone [2]. Comparable WNBA games where a team overcame a poor season record to win decisively have similarly driven YES probabilities for the underdog to collapse before the match, mirroring the current market setup.

Traders should monitor official WNBA announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, as these would keep the market open or trigger a 50–50 resolution. Recent coverage highlighted the Fire’s struggle on the road and the Sky’s home strength, factors that directly influenced the pre-match probability [3]. With the settlement window ending on 26 June 2026 at 23:30 UTC, no further catalysts remain; the final score, including overtime, is the sole determinant, and the Sky’s 30-point margin confirms the outcome [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.