Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cincinnati Reds are playing the New York Yankees in a regular-season MLB game, and the market resolves to the named team that wins; in simple terms, a **YES** share pays out if that team is the winner, while **NO** pays if it is not. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed, and if it is cancelled outright or ends tied, it settles **50-50** rather than to either side.

A 37% crowd-implied probability for the Reds suggests the market makes Cincinnati the underdog but not a remote one. That is consistent with the teams’ recent form and the series context: the Yankees won 5-0 on 19 June, then the Reds responded with a 10-2 win on 20 June, leaving the matchup split and reminding traders that short MLB series can swing quickly on one starting pitching edge or a high-scoring inning. ESPN listed the Yankees at 46-29 and the Reds at 36-39 ahead of the game, which helps explain why New York is priced shorter overall. [4][3][1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the official line-ups, any late pitching changes, and whether the game starts on time, because those directly affect the chance of the scheduled contest being played to completion. MLB’s preview noted Rhett Lowder as a starter in the series context, and ESPN’s game pages indicate this is the June 21 meeting, so any update to the probable starters, weather, or postponement status would matter more than historical head-to-head results alone. [7][8][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.