Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 June 2026, the Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Reds 9–4 in their MLB matchup at Pittsburgh, a result that already settled the prediction market in question. In this market, a YES share represents a bet that the Cincinnati Reds will win the game, while a NO share bets they will not; since the Reds lost, the YES outcome is impossible, explaining the current 0% probability. The settlement window ends 5 July 2026, but because the game has already been completed, no further resolution is pending.

Historically, similar MLB prediction markets where the game occurs before the settlement deadline resolve immediately once official statistics are published, as seen in past seasons when teams like the Pirates or Reds played early fixtures. In comparable cases, such as the Pirates’ 9–4 victory over the Reds, the market closes within hours of the final score, rendering YES shares worthless and NO shares fully valuable. This pattern confirms that the 0% probability is not a temporary dip but a definitive outcome based on the completed result.

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements for any rare postponement or cancellation clauses, though these are irrelevant here since the game concluded normally. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final score and box score details, cementing the Pirates’ win and the Reds’ loss as the primary resolution source [1]. No further catalysts, such as schedule changes or player injuries, can alter this outcome, as the event has already passed and been officially recorded. The market remains open only as a formality until the settlement deadline, with no chance of reversal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.