Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

On Tuesday, 30 June 2026, the Detroit Tigers face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in a 7:05pm ET MLB game, with the Tigers needing to win for a "YES" share to resolve favourably. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd implies an 82% chance the Tigers win, a probability that feels steep given the Yankees' recent form. Historical context matters: in the previous night’s matchup on 29 June, the Tigers defeated a sloppy Yankees side 7–3, capitalising on shoddy defence and slumping pitching[4]. Comparable cases show that when a team wins decisively after a loss, momentum often carries, yet the Yankees’ run-line requirement to cover by two runs or more suggests the market still expects a narrow contest[3].

Traders should watch for late pitching announcements, weather updates in Bronx, and any in-game injury news, as these are primary catalysts for probability shifts. The game is televised on TBS, and any delay due to weather could postpone resolution until the match is completed[5]. Recent highlights confirm the Tigers’ strong offensive output, with pitcher Mize recording a career-high 10 strikeouts in a 7–3 win over the Yankees just hours before this market’s settlement window begins[1]. With the settlement deadline set for 23:05:05 UTC on 7 July 2026, traders must monitor real-time stats from MLB.TV, as postponed games remain open until completion, while cancellations resolve 50–50[5]. The Tigers’ home record (22–16) and the Yankees’ inconsistent defence remain key dependencies for the 82% implied probability to hold[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.