New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June, the New York Mets will travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. In prediction market terms, a YES share represents a Mets victory, whilst a NO share represents a Reds win. The current crowd-implied probability of 51% YES suggests traders view this as a near-even matchup, though the settlement window extends to 23 June to accommodate any postponements. Understanding how to read this probability requires context: the Mets have historically been stronger than the Reds over recent seasons, yet Cincinnati has shown competitive capacity in divisional play. The Reds' home-field advantage at Great American Ball Park typically narrows the gap between teams of unequal overall strength.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher assignments, as these substantially influence single-game outcomes. Injury reports released in the days before 16 June will affect both teams' offensive and defensive capabilities. The Mets' recent form—their win-loss record and run differential heading into mid-June—provides the most reliable indicator of relative strength. Similarly, the Reds' performance trajectory matters; a team on a winning streak commands different odds than one in decline. Weather conditions at game time, particularly wind direction and temperature affecting fly-ball carry, can shift probabilities for teams with specific offensive profiles. Any roster moves or suspensions announced between now and game day warrant reassessment of the current 51-49 split.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.