New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Major League Baseball match between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 25 June 2026, which has already concluded with a 6–3 victory for the Red Sox. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the market will resolve to the stated outcome (here, "New York Yankees"), while a NO share bets it will not. With the game finished and the Yankees losing, the crowd-implied probability of 0% YES correctly reflects that the Yankees did not win, making the YES share worthless and the NO share certain to pay out.

Historically, two rival teams like these often see one-off results that defy season-long trends, such as the Red Sox’s 2004 ALCS collapse followed by their 2007 title run. However, in this case, the outcome is already settled: the Red Sox won decisively, and no postponement or cancellation can alter the result. Traders should note that once a game is completed, the market resolves immediately based on official statistics, and no further catalysts—such as lineup announcements or weather updates—apply. The only dependency is the final score, which ESPN and MLB confirm as 6–3 for Boston [1][4].

Since the settlement window ends in 2026 but the game is already done, there are no active catalysts to monitor. The market is effectively closed for trading, as the resolution is certain. Any recent news about the teams, such as injury reports or roster moves, is irrelevant to this specific outcome [1]. The 0% probability is not a forecast but a confirmation of a past event, and the market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" with full certainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.