Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 32.5 | 95% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 94% |
| Cowboys O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 93% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Cowboys O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 36.5 | 91% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 90% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 87% |
| Cowboys O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 38.5 | 86% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 83% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 81% |
| O/U 41.5 | 80% |
| Cowboys O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| O/U 42.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| O/U 43.5 | 76% |
| O/U 44.5 | 75% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| Cowboys O/U 20.5 | 74% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| O/U 46.5 | 70% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 68% |
| O/U 47.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| O/U 48.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| Cowboys O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 50.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 58% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| O/U 51.5 | 56% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| O/U 52.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 54% |
| Cowboys O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 50% |
| Cowboys Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Cowboys 2H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Cowboys O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| O/U 55.5 | 44% |
| Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 56.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 20.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| O/U 59.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Cowboys O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 60.5 | 30% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| Cowboys Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| O/U 63.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Cowboys vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 17.5 | 22% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| Cowboys 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 67.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Cowboys by 1-6 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Cowboys O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 71.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 4% |
Market context
The Cowboys vs. Packers prediction market currently prices this outcome at 96% YES. In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if Cowboys win the game. This market will resolve to "Packer…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $217K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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