Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 25.5 | 96% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| O/U 32.5 | 88% |
| Vikings O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 33.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Vikings O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 35.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| Vikings O/U 13.5 | 80% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 77% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 71% |
| Vikings O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| Vikings O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 46.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 54% |
| Vikings O/U 20.5 | 53% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 53% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 52% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Vikings Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Vikings vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 7-12 | 49% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 25+ | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 19-24 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 13-18 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 1-6 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 43% |
| Vikings Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Vikings O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Vikings vs. Bears | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 17.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 54.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 13.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Vikings O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 56.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Vikings O/U 27.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Spread -14.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| O/U 58.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 16.5 | 20% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 19% |
| Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Vikings O/U 30.5 | 17% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Vikings O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, vikings vs. bears stands at 97% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.6M.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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