Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 96% |
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 33.5 | 94% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 28.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| O/U 35.5 | 89% |
| O/U 36.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 83% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 81% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 42.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 74% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 73% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 72% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 45.5 | 69% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 68% |
| O/U 46.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 64% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| O/U 48.5 | 61% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 49.5 | 58% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 50.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| O/U 51.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 49% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| O/U 52.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 48% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| O/U 54.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 55.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 56.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| O/U 57.5 | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 31% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 59.5 | 27% |
| O/U 60.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 25% |
| O/U 61.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | 23% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| Spread -1.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| O/U 63.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 18% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| O/U 65.5 | 15% |
| Spread -21.5 | 15% |
| Spread -3.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| O/U 67.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| O/U 71.5 | 7% |
| Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Market context
Market consensus: 96% chance of commanders vs. 49ers. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Commanders" if Commanders win the game. This mar…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $127K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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Trade Commanders vs. 49ers on Prediction Market UK
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