North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Dota 2 tournament where one North American team secures a slot to The International 2026, the world’s premier esports championship. This market trades on whether a team from that region qualifies, with a YES share representing a bet that qualification happens and a NO share betting it does not. Currently, the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for YES, suggesting the market believes qualification is impossible or the event will not resolve as expected.

Historically, North American teams have struggled to qualify for The International in recent years, often failing to advance past regional qualifiers despite strong domestic scenes. Comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show similar 0% probabilities before qualifiers, which later resolved to “Other” when no team advanced or the event was disrupted. This pattern frames the current probability not as a prediction of failure, but as a signal of structural risk or cancellation likelihood.

Traders should watch for official announcements from PGL, the tournament organiser, regarding team confirmations, schedule changes, or potential cancellations. A recent update from the official Dota 2 news site confirms the qualifier runs from June 24 to June 26, with one slot awarded, and notes the full field will be decided by June 28 [4]. Any delay in publishing the Group Stage participant list before August 15, 2026, will trigger an “Other” resolution, making this deadline a critical catalyst to monitor closely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.