Belgium vs. IR Iran

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Belgium and IR Iran meet in their FIFA World Cup group-stage game at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and a **YES** share on this market pays out if Belgium are judged to have won by the settlement rules, while a **NO** share pays out if they do not. The current crowd-implied probability of **13% YES** suggests traders see Belgium as a clear outsider in this specific market, rather than a side priced as the more likely winner. [4][9]

That reading is best set against the wider football context: Belgium are traditionally the stronger international side, but prediction-market prices can move sharply when line-ups, fitness and tournament form become clearer. Pre-match previews have still framed Belgium as favourites in the group and noted their tendency to control games when ahead, while Iran arrive with a long World Cup history but no progression beyond the group stage; Iran have reached the finals seven times and remain without a knockout-round appearance. [1][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting XIs, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the teams’ recent tournament performances hold up under match conditions. ESPN lists the kick-off at 3.00 p.m. ET / 8.00 p.m. BST, with referee Darío Herrera and Belgium reportedly coming in after “two contrasting draws”, which is the sort of pre-match detail that can influence short-term price changes once official team news lands. [2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Belgium vs. IR Iran on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.