Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia

Platform comparison

Market context

Derry City FC faces PFK CSKA Sofia in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League first qualifying round tie at the Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium on Thursday, 16 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs (here, if Derry City wins the match), while a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of a Derry City win sits at 0%, reflecting the difficulty of overturning a one-goal deficit after the first leg ended 3–2 to CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria [2][6].

Historically, teams needing to win away to overcome a single-goal deficit in Europa League qualifiers succeed in roughly 25–30% of cases, but Derry City’s odds suggest the market views this as highly unlikely. CSKA Sofia entered the first leg as heavy favourites, with opening odds of −550 for a win, and maintained that advantage despite a tight contest [1][5]. The 0% probability implies traders expect CSKA Sofia to either win again or draw, eliminating Derry City from the competition.

Traders should monitor pre-match team news, particularly starting lineups and any late injuries, as these can shift momentum in knockout qualifiers. CSKA Sofia’s midfield dominance in the first leg was a key factor, and any changes there could be critical [6]. Additionally, weather conditions at the Brandywell Stadium and referee appointments may influence the game’s tempo. With the settlement window closing at 17:30 UTC on 16 July, all outcomes will be settled immediately after the final whistle [3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.