Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: global esports vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between Global Esports and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. …
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3… on Prediction Market UK
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