World Cup Group H Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place across the United States, Canada, and Mexico from June 11–27, with 16 groups of four teams competing in the initial stage. Group H's composition and final standings will determine which team tops the group and advances as group winner. A YES share on this market pays out if a specific team (named in the full market listing) finishes first in Group H; a NO share pays if any other team wins the group. The settlement window closes on 27 June 2026, giving traders clarity once all group matches conclude and FIFA's official tiebreak rules—goal difference, head-to-head record, and goals scored—are applied if necessary.

Historical World Cup group outcomes show that favourites do not always win their groups. In 2022, Spain and Germany both exited their groups despite pre-tournament status, whilst Saudi Arabia's shock victory over Argentina altered Group C dynamics entirely. Group stage upsets stem from fixture scheduling, team rotation strategies, and the compressed timeframe of three matches per team. The current 4% probability suggests the market views the YES team as a significant underdog relative to other Group H contenders.

Key variables for traders include squad announcements (expected by late 2025), injury updates during the tournament, and fixture scheduling details released by FIFA. Qualifying results from the regional confederations will confirm Group H's final membership by late 2025. Match-day weather conditions, referee assignments, and tactical adjustments during the group stage itself remain unpredictable factors that can shift outcomes materially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.