Skip to main content

World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

Five-platform snapshot of "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

48 outcomes · leader: Spain at 98%

Spain 98% Outcomes: 48 Runner-up: 97% Σ 3178% Volume: $461K 24h volume: $238K Liquidity: $1.2M Opened: 27 Apr 2026 Closes: 28 Jun 2026 2 comments

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will

Open live market →
World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

Market statistics

Total volume
$461K
24h volume
$238K
Liquidity
$1.2M
Open interest
$401K
Comments
2

Available prediction outcomes (48)

Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.

#1 Spain
Spain
Vol $20K · 24h $5K
98% Trade →
#2 England
England
Vol $9K · 24h $5K
97% Trade →
#3 France
France ▼ -0.1%
Vol $35K · 24h $29K
97% Trade →
#4 Brazil
Brazil ▼ -0.8%
Vol $10K · 24h $3K
97% Trade →
#5 Germany
Germany ▲ +0.4%
Vol $9K · 24h $3K
97% Trade →
#6 Portugal
Portugal ▼ -0.2%
Vol $12K · 24h $4K
96% Trade →
#7 Belgium
Belgium ▼ -0.4%
Vol $6K · 24h $3K
96% Trade →
#8 Argentina
Argentina ▲ +0.9%
Vol $5K · 24h $696
96% Trade →
#9 Switzerland
Switzerland ▲ +0.4%
Vol $23K · 24h $18K
94% Trade →
#10 Mexico
Mexico ▲ +1.5%
Vol $6K · 24h $690
91% Trade →
#11 Netherlands
Netherlands ▼ -2.0%
Vol $6K · 24h $609
91% Trade →
#12 Ecuador
Ecuador ▲ +2.0%
Vol $2K · 24h $126
89% Trade →
#13 Colombia
Colombia
Vol $8K · 24h $711
88% Trade →
#14 Morocco
Morocco ▼ -1.5%
Vol $3K · 24h $76
86% Trade →
#15 Uruguay
Uruguay
Vol $2K · 24h $1K
86% Trade →
#16 Norway
Norway ▲ +3.0%
Vol $46K · 24h $42K
86% Trade →
#17 Canada
Canada ▲ +1.5%
Vol $2K · 24h $338
85% Trade →
#18 USA
USA ▼ -0.5%
Vol $26K · 24h $8K
84% Trade →
#19 Croatia
Croatia
Vol $3K · 24h $2K
81% Trade →
#20 Austria
Austria ▲ +1.0%
Vol $16K · 24h $3K
81% Trade →
#21 Turkiye
Turkiye ▼ -1.5%
Vol $10K · 24h $871
79% Trade →
#22 Japan
Japan ▲ +0.5%
Vol $3K · 24h $335
79% Trade →
#23 Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast ▼ -0.5%
Vol $2K · 24h $38
78% Trade →
#24 Egypt
Egypt
Vol $893 · 24h $8
73% Trade →
#25 Scotland
Scotland ▼ -0.5%
Vol $8K · 24h $16
72% Trade →
#26 Senegal
Senegal
Vol $8K · 24h $6K
71% Trade →
#27 Czechia
Czechia
Vol $2K · 24h $465
70% Trade →
#28 South Korea
South Korea ▲ +0.5%
Vol $889 · 24h $87
70% Trade →
#29 Algeria
Algeria ▲ +0.5%
Vol $2K · 24h $239
69% Trade →
#30 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $3K · 24h $41
66% Trade →
#31 Paraguay
Paraguay ▼ -1.0%
Vol $478 · 24h $9
64% Trade →
#32 Iran
Iran ▲ +0.1%
Vol $3K · 24h $50
63% Trade →
#33 Sweden
Sweden ▼ -0.5%
Vol $4K · 24h $1K
63% Trade →
#34 Ghana
Ghana ▲ +0.5%
Vol $3K · 24h $550
51% Trade →
#35 Australia
Australia ▼ -1.5%
Vol $6K · 24h $808
48% Trade →
#36 DR Congo
DR Congo ▲ +0.5%
Vol $6K · 24h $83
43% Trade →
#37 Tunisia
Tunisia
Vol $3K · 24h $410
39% Trade →
#38 South Africa
South Africa ▲ +1.0%
Vol $4K · 24h $683
38% Trade →
#39 Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Vol $24K · 24h $12K
35% Trade →
#40 New Zealand
New Zealand ▲ +1.5%
Vol $10K · 24h $1K
33% Trade →
#41 Cape Verde
Cape Verde ▲ +2.5%
Vol $4K · 24h $126
32% Trade →
#42 Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan ▼ -2.0%
Vol $6K · 24h $4K
32% Trade →
#43 Panama
Panama
Vol $4K · 24h $210
28% Trade →
#44 Qatar
Qatar ▼ -2.0%
Vol $21K · 24h $18K
21% Trade →
#45 Jordan
Jordan ▼ -1.5%
Vol $21K · 24h $17K
19% Trade →
#46 Iraq
Iraq ▼ -1.0%
Vol $44K · 24h $41K
14% Trade →
#47 Haiti
Haiti ▲ +2.0%
Vol $8K · 24h $1K
14% Trade →
#48 Curacao
Curacao ▼ -4.0%
Vol $5K · 24h $3K
9% Trade →

Market context

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will

Wikipedia Context

  • World cup
    World cup

    A world cup is a global sporting competition in which the participant entities – usually international teams or individuals representing their countries – compete for the title of world champion. The event most associated with the name is the FIFA World Cup for association football, which dates back to 1930. Since then there have been a number of sporting ev

  • 2016 World Cup of Hockey

    The 2016 World Cup of Hockey was an international ice hockey tournament. It was the third installment of the National Hockey League (NHL)-sanctioned competition, 12 years after the second World Cup of Hockey in 2004. It was held from September 17 to September 29 at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Canada won the championship, defeating Team Europe in t

  • 1996 World Cup of Hockey

    The first World Cup of Hockey (WCH), or the 1996 World Cup of Hockey, was the inaugural edition of the event, replacing the Canada Cup as one of the world championships of ice hockey.

  • 2028 World Cup of Hockey

    The 2028 World Cup of Hockey will be the fourth installment of the World Cup of Hockey by the National Hockey League. It will be played in February 2028 with 17 games in three host cities. The competition will include eight teams from individual countries in North America and Europe.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Trade World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →